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submitted by fckafd to csgogambling [link] [comments]

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submitted by fckafd to csgogambling [link] [comments]

[Video Games/Rollercoaster Tycoon] Theme Park Studio: How a developer set exceedingly high expectations and failed to meet them

Tl;dr: fans of a video game are excited about the release of what could be the spiritual successor of their video game. Said developer makes very bold promises and obviously fails to deliver, finally releasing a very disappointing game and alienating most of the community.
I recently stumbled upon this subreddit; I've enjoyed reading most of the posts here and figured I had a few stories to share as well. From 2012 to about 2018, I was active (though with intermittent breaks) in a community of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 players. This was a small community, with no more than a few hundred active members at its heyday and only a few people active now. Despite its small size, there were definitely a few memorable instances of drama. This is one of those stories; it actually involved another game called Theme Park Studio, which – as you may expect from the title – was not what it promised to be.
Background
Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released in October 2004, developed by Frontier and published by Atari. It was primarily a theme park management game, where players have to earn money and keep guests happy in a theme park by constructing and maintaining rides, shops, paths, scenery and more. There was also a sandbox mode that allowed players to build without any monetary restrictions. A small but active community set out to build roller coasters and theme parks (and occasionally completely different projects) in this sandbox mode and share their results online.
While the game was good for its time and viewed positively by many, it did have some downsides. Firstly, the game used a grid: when placing rides and scenery, you were confined to this grid and had little freedom to place things where you want. Secondly, the roller coaster construction system was limited compared to similar games, and as a result most roller coasters were hardly very smooth. Thirdly, the game was poorly optimized. As an example: the game had a day-night cycle, but the game was basically unplayable at night, so people set the game to only daytime.
Over time, people became more and more ambitious in their projects, and these problems became more apparent. As a solution, lots of custom content (akin to mods in other games) was made by members of the community: custom scenery objects, custom rides and even custom roller coaster tracks. These objects were much more versatile and looked much better than most in-game content. As a result, people almost exclusively used custom content to build their projects. Combined with some smart picture and video editing, almost nothing was still recognizable from the original game.
While custom content brought a whole new level of versatility and arguably kept the community running for a long time, the aforementioned problems still persisted. Because the game was being pushed to its limits, people were wondering when a sequel was coming. By 2012, there was no word yet by Atari on a potential sequel, and many similar games from other video game publishers had failed to offer any meaningful improvement to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. However, this was soon to change.
The spiritual successor
Enter Pantera Entertainment, a small, unknown video game publisher and developer. In November 2012, they posted a trailer to Theme Park Studio, which presented itself as a theme park building tool. Unlike Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, which had a focus on park management, the focus was on building attractive theme parks and rides. Many of the aforementioned issues were solved in this game: there was no grid-based system that dictated where you had to build, roller coasters could be constructed with much more freedom, and the graphics looked more modern. One major feature was the ability to import custom content. Obviously this was also possible in Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, but only using third-party software. That the developers were now anticipating for this was a good sign.
The community was generally excited about Theme Park Studio: it looked to be the spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The staff from Pantera would even visit the forums (at the time, most of the community was active through online messaging boards) and would happily provide updates, answer questions and take suggestions. This left a good impression with most of the community.
Over the coming months, more and more promises were being made on new features and huge amounts of content. The game was looking to become a very ambitious project. Now, it would later be discovered that little development had actually been done on the game: the trailer had really only showed footage from Pantera’s earlier title, Hyper Rails. Nevertheless, the release date was set for summer 2013, and the community was still optimistic for a long time.
In April 2013, a Kickstarter campaign was set up. For the uninitiated, Kickstarter allows for developers to source crowdfunding for a project. Developers set a goal and have a set time to achieve that goal. People can ‘back’ a project by donate towards that goal, and in return receive rewards based on the amount they donated. Money only goes towards the project if that goal is actually reached; otherwise the ‘backers’ receive their money back. Well, Pantera set a goal of $80.000 for Theme Park Studio, to be fulfilled within a month. Backer rewards were ambitious: lower amounts would get you the game for free, both a physical and digital copy, and perhaps some merchandise, while those who backed larger amounts were allowed to suggest or design certain rides for the game, and the highest-tier backers (think $500 or more, which only a few people donated) would get you an invitation to a big release party. Now, keep these rewards in mind, as they’ll become important later on.
It took a while and people feared the goal wouldn’t be met, but thanks to enough promotion and a few generous donations, about $100.000 was raised, and the goal was met. Despite Pantera’s ambitious promises, the community was optimistic. Some high-standing members of the community were even assisting in the development of the game and were offering their custom content – made for Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 – to be used in Theme Park Studio. Unfortunately, as we would later discover, this hard work would never really pay off.
Early access
The Kickstarter campaign offered a release date of September 2013. As time went on, it became very apparent that this was unachievable. The game was delayed several times; first to later in 2013, then to April 2014. Finally, they announced that instead of waiting for the complete game, Theme Park Studio would enter Early Access on Steam in February 2014.
Early Access allows people to play a game before its full release. People can play the game and offer feedback to the developers, who can use this feedback to improve the game and add new content in free updates to the players. In this case, that would mean that Theme Park Studio would first release as a basic theme park builder, and that other features, such as new rides and the custom content importer would be added later.
Early Access is an example of something that works well on paper, but is often butchered in practice. When done well, Early Access is a win-win situation: players don’t have to wait to play the game but can get involved in its development, and developers will receive money which they can use to fund the rest of the development. Unfortunately, it is rarely done well, and there are many games released through Early Access that are flat-out unplayable or clearly unfinished. Similarly, many games never leave Early Access or only leave many years later, because developers have little incentive to improve and complete a game they’ve already received money for.
Well, Theme Park Studio would turn out to fit the latter category. Upon release, the game was... disappointing. Most notable was the lack of ability to build roller coasters: players could only build flat rides (simple rides such as a merry-go-round or a Ferris wheel). The game was also poorly optimized and didn’t look particularly great. Still, many people called for the community to be patient and wait for new updates to come: Pantera had provided a route map for the implementation of further updates to provide some perspective.
This implementation was generally very slow. For example, the ability to build roller coasters – a rather essential part of a theme park construction tool - didn’t come until August that year; even then, people weren’t happy about it, as it was unintuitive and difficult to use, and many considered it hardly an improvement from Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The community slowly grew divided. A sizeable group defended Theme Park Studio and called for people to be patient, but a growing group had become very critical of the game and its developers. However, besides lacking updates and producing a game of low quality, there were other glaring issues as well.
Pantera loses approval
Now, remember the aforementioned Kickstarter rewards? As time went on, it became increasingly clear that many of these rewards would never be released. Many people complained about not receiving digital access to the game once it was released through Early Access, despite promises from Pantera – and that was the easiest reward for them to fulfil. Even to this day, some people are yet to receive digital access. People were also losing hope about higher-tier rewards, such as physical copies of the game, merchandise and the release party.
Probably the most controversial reward tiers were those that allowed backers to design rides, however. More than 100 people had pledged enough money to have a ride suggestion implemented into the game. It turned out, however, that many of these suggestions would never see the light of day. On the forums, people complained about their suggestions being rejected, while some received no response from Pantera. When eventually an update was released that was supposed to contain rides suggested by backers, people noted that way fewer rides were added than that there were backers. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but I think no more than 10% saw their rides actually published in-game.
Now, resentment grew towards Pantera for failing to uphold their end of the bargain and releasing an unfinished, low-quality game. By this time, there was also not much left of the actively involved, feedback-taking staff that represented the game when it was first announced: the developer became notorious for failing to take and accept constructive criticism. Many people had their posts removed and accounts banned from the official Theme Park Studio forum for speaking out against the developer.
Another absurd rule on their forums was their stance on ‘dark rides’, mainly indoor rides based around creating an atmosphere above being thrilling, such as a haunted house. As the name suggests, many dark rides are dark: the atmosphere is creepy or scary, and many horror themes are used. Well, the forum banned the posting of rides containing demonic themes or otherwise being ‘sacrilegious’, effectively meaning most dark rides. This pissed off the community, as quite a few people made dark rides and this was seen as infringement on their creativity. It also spawned a series of memes on rides that were “too dark and sinister for Theme Park Studio”. Another questionable decision by the development team was to add VR support; while becoming the only theme park building or management game to have it, it was generally criticised because it would add very little to the game and so many other aspects of the game needed much more working on. I’m sure there were other decisions made by Pantera that received significant backlash from the community, but these I remember best.
The aftermath
Over time, interest in Theme Park Studio faded away and people generally gave up hope that they would ever receive their Kickstarter rewards. There were still a few avid supporters of the game, but the broken promises, slow progress, disappointing results and bad PR meant most people in the community had changed their stance over the years. The game was forgotten and slowly faded into irrelevance. There was no real way for backers to get their money back or otherwise hold Pantera accountable for the unfulfilled promises, an issue that other failed Kickstarter campaigns unfortunately also have. Amazingly, some of the backers reported actually receiving a physical copy of the game, albeit five or six years after the initial Kickstarter campaign, but similarly there are still people waiting for their rewards to this date.
Theme Park Studio was finally released in December 2016, after many years in development. It released without much fanfare and definitely without a release party that backers had paid hundreds, sometimes even thousands of dollars for; many people didn’t even notice it had left Early Access. The game never took off and its reviews on Steam are mostly negative. The entire fiasco made people much more sceptical of other new games: from 2014 onwards, many other theme park simulation games were announced and released, but people were much more cautiously optimistic about these games (and rightfully so; many of them failed, but those are stories for another time).
Eventually, the true spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released: Planet Coaster, developed by Frontier (the original developers of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3). It was released in November 2016, prompting some to think that the definitive release of Theme Park Studio only weeks later was a hasty attempt to piggyback off of that success. It did almost everything Theme Park Studio promised and offered the possibility to build much more detailed and complex rides. Over time, many people who played Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 switched over to Planet Coaster because of the vast improvements.
People generally forgot about Theme Park Studio, and many people wanted to leave it in the past. It’s hard to find many of the original forum posts on the topic. RCTLounge, one of the major forums on the topic, was closed in 2016 due to inactivity. In 2018, Shyguy’s World, another forum on the topic, actually removed the Theme Park Studios board and deleted all posts to forget about the ‘dark and sinister’ affair. As the forum’s owner said: “The first rule of Theme Park Studio... you do not talk about Theme Park Studio”. The official Theme Park Studios forums are also down and the website is vastly outdated. Most of this post was sourced by memories, the Wayback machine and the few threads I could still find.
Many people agreed that Pantera was probably a well-intentioned company that had simply bitten off more than they could chew. Clearly they had vastly underestimated the difficulty of this project and lost any drive to complete the project as it went on and support disappeared. Nevertheless, all the drama resulted in a bitter aftertaste for many people and changed people’s outlooks on the future releases of similar games.
submitted by xLiterallyNothing to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

I came back from the dead and nuked ex-fiancé's life insurance money plans!

Throwaway for obvious reasons...
So I will start this story by saying that I don't think I am a good person, and a story with some collateral damage. But this is a story about one bad person getting revenge on another bad person.
Backstory: I[34m, now] was raised by a single mom because dad passed away when I was younger, but I had many male role models in older brothers and he left behind a generous life insurance policy, so I largely had a good upbringing. However, I was not ever very social and from my early teens I spent a lot of time in front of my computer. This habit got worse as I went to college and it resulted in me spending 80% of my time gaming, working, reading, or whatever on a screen. As a result, I was not very attractive and quite obese at the age of 20. For these reasons, I never really dated and did not even lose my virginity until I met my exfiance. On top of this, I was raised very religious because my mom became really religious after the death of my father so I always thought it was a bad idea to "play the field". The only thing I had going for me was that I had become somewhat proficient in several coding languages and expanded on these in college. I would not say that I am a good IT person or coder, but with a little bit of coding knowledge and a lot of creativity you can create residual income streams and I had a decent job in IT where I could work from home 3 days a week. At the age of 24, I was still overweight and a social reject, but through my mom I met a woman from her "bible study" that would eventually become ex-fiance[36f, now]. We hit off and started dating. She had a 2 year old son at the time and they became the only thing in my world that I cared about. It did not take me long to get physical (LOL) all those years of pretending I was "saving myself" went out the window when I finally had the chance to lose it. To be honest, she really broke me out of the shell I had become more sociable within a couple months of meeting her. I even took on a fatherly role for her son and within 6 months of dating she got pregnant. Being the religious person I was, I immediately proposed and wanted to marry before the birth of the baby. Then she dropped a bombshell on me.... she was still legally married.... to a guy in prison. This did not bother me too much as she had always talked about her troubled past and I thought I would be the one to save her from it anyways so I just took this as it came with the territory. She began the divorce proceedings shortly and we planned to get married as soon as those were finished. I was riding high after the baby was born and I thought I had really carved a place for myself in the world. I even started losing weight and spent less time online than ever. She was always kind to me and I thought we let each other know everything we were thinking... boy was I wrong.
There were a few red flags that I was too love struck to see. 1.) She told me early on that the only reason she got involved with my church was that she was on probation and had pending court cases and thought it would help her case. 2.) Despite me earning a comfortable 6 figure income with side projects and my main IT job, she insisted that she keep her part time job and my mom had to help me take care of the kids to deal with it. 3.) She knew WAY TOO MANY PEOPLE - like what suburban mom with a secretarial job has 200 contacts in her phone? 4.) We kept delaying our marriage due to sick relatives or other issues (although she did go through with the divorce to the prison guy)
Then something happened that shook me out of her spell. She got pregnant for a second time and this time with twins. We had only been with eachother for ~4 years and we were about to have 4 kids. 2 more than I thought I would ever have. She claimed she was on birth control at the time, so we were not using condoms. Anyways, after the twins were born I started seeing my doctor about a vasectomy and my exfiance encouraged it. I wanted to get some swimmers frozen before the the operation because we could completely change our minds in 5 years. So I go in for the visit and the doctor comes out to tell me that my sperm count was low and they were mostly immobile, but this problem might be temporary and I should try to eat a healthier diet and stuff for a few weeks and come back. When I came to the second appointment and the same problem arose, the doc started doing some investigating, but you know where this is going. SO... the doctor says that its likely that I am infertile (this turned out to not be completely true, as I now have a child that I KNOW is biologically mine, but it still propelled the following events.) I mentioned that I had 3 biological children and the doctor looked anxious and started talking, but I was in shell shock and did not really know what he was saying. I think I left the doctors office before they were even done with me. I did not even get in my car, I just walked until it started to get dark and eventually called an Uber to get home. My fiance was worried and already asleep inside and I just lied to her and told her my car broke down, phone died, and I was at the mechanic late and forgot to let her know. I fell asleep and woke up the next day and immediately got on the computer to research similar stories and started to give myself false hope. The first post I read was about how fertility assessments are not true and I should 100% get a test. I thought for sure this would show the doctor was wrong, but I got the test back and within a week I knew the kids were not mine.
The first person I told was my mom, I went to her house and cried for the first time in my adult life. She consoled me and then told me a story that I was never meant to hear. Essentially, I am the product of an affair myself and that dad actually died from an overdose on pain meds after he found out. Well, I don't know why the f#$% my mom thought this would comfort me, but in reality it just gave me an unhealthy view of women for a while. After the story and calming down, she insisted that I "man up" and honor my commitment to these kids because "I am the only father those kids had ever known". Up to this point I had always been a pushover, and I really considered her words to me for about 24-hours before I completely snapped. I called my fiancé and told her I had to stay the night at my moms house because of a family issue and she offered to make us dinner which I declined. At this point, the twins are about 6 months, the boys are 2.5 years and ~5 years old. I won't lie and say that I felt nothing for these kids, but it was hard to look them in the face and I knew I was done being their father. I knew this would tear them up and damage them, but I couldn't stand to hear them say "dadda" to me because every time it was like a knife in my heart. I kept my cool and did not expose anything and my mom did not say anything I assume because she thought I was "manning up". I spoke to an attorney, because I wanted to get myself off the birth certificates of these children and I thought I could seamlessly slip out of this situation because we were not married. Unfortunately, after going through the paperwork and financials, since I had tangled much of our finances and I "took on a fatherly role" I would be responsible for at least the boys child support and she would get equity in the house and my side businesses. Basically, the lawyers said that I would likely be on the hook for something like 25% of my income for many years to come. I pretty much ghosted my lawyers after paying them their initial fee, because I did not like the idea of state-enforced cucking.
The revenge starts here. I started to make a plan to disappear and leave them all with as little as possible. The start of this was destroying all of my passive income streams and getting myself fired. Getting myself fired was easy, but it got a bit cringe, basically did some of the stuff from office space, smashed an office printer in the courtyard, didn't do anything while working from home except send memes to coworkers, but I did not do anything to clients because my boss was actually a friend of mine, but my office mates had a good time watching this. After this, I did not even try to file for unemployment and began living off our savings. My exfiance let me handle all the financials despite both of our names being on everything, so she did not notice our accounts slowly draining of money and the financials going to chaos because I left her checking account filled with a few thousand (credit card debt skyrocketed because I stopped paying our cards LOL). I sat there for months wondering if I should end it and follow in the footsteps of my would-be father, but ultimately decided against it. I got ancestory test kits for the kids in an effort to find who their actual father was, because I was hoping to get them away from my ex, but this resulted in even weirder findings. Essentially the oldest child was a cousin/half-brother to his siblings and so the prison guy's brother must have gotten her pregnant, also I did not see any family members from the test that I thought would be a good fit. So that was the end of that investigation. I also tried to distance myself from my mom, as I had become disgusted by what she did to my dad and her newfound cheater allegiance with my ex. I formulated a plan to get away, FAR AWAY, from everything by just vanishing on a "hiking trip". I really hyped up this hiking trip and claimed I would be in the (insert location here) for a week alone with my thoughts in the trails. Before the trip I took the then ~6 year old out for ice cream and cried for the second time in my adult life. The 6 year old was obviously distraught over seeing his "dad" cry and started trying to calm me down. I guess I was crying that I had to leave him, and I told him I was sorry dozens of times but I think he was just confused about the situation. I was more concerned about losing him, because I knew he was not my child and I was able to form a bond anyways.
I left that afternoon and actually made my way to the lodge and checked in. Now the next part I will mostly skip because I am not sure if it was legal or illegal or whatever but cut to 6 months later and I have a new name and live in a new city where I was able to restart my IT career and was slowly working toward my old income status again. I started stalking my ex on facebook and other social-media. I won't lie, it was cathartic to say the least. The chaos of them trying to get into accounts must have been hell and she figured out that our comfortable finances were not so comfortable after all. Begging for money on facebook is sooooo trashy. Once again I won't mention the legal stuff, but a lot of people went looking for me and I considered phoning the police to let them know that I was okay, but decided against it (eventually had to pay a hefty fine for this, but it was well worth it). I worked on myself for a long time and got into great shape. Lost my religion and descended into a hedonistic lifestyle. I became unrecognizable. I continued stalking this woman for about a year when I heard she was dating a new guy and got pregnant almost immediately. Of course, my mom was still in her life taking care of my "supposed children" while she was doing god knows what. Then on the one year anniversary of me leaving she posted a memorial page... for me. This made me decide that my revenge was not quite done and I decided to call up my brother and let him know I was alive. My brother and I had drifted over the past 10 years, but he was blood and was always there when I was younger. I told him why I did what I did and we caught up and I asked him not to tell anyone yet and he agreed. But then he told me about my mom and my ex-fiance suing my insurance company to honor my life insurance. Somehow, she had managed to keep up this policy going despite its hefty cost. The payout would be substantial (7 figures) and she would be awarded the premiums that she had paid since my alleged death if she won.
Well I am not the kind of uncivilized person that would defraud an insurance company so I started my plans! I drove the 1000mile journey to my old city when I heard she had an upcoming hearing and listened to "highway to hell" half the way down.
I went to the court early and sat down. Now at this time I had grown a beard, lost 60 pounds and generally looked good. I looked so different that my fiance and mother passed right by me in the court without giving me a second look. I thought they would be meeting in a big court room and I was already planning to barge in and yell something about objecting and being a cringelord like usual. But they ended up going to a small room with some lawyers from the insurance company. I decided frick it and knocked on the door several times until they opened it. They were all confused to see this scraggly dressed man with a beard and I simply said "I believe you are trying to settle the issue of whether I am dead". My exfiance realized it was me almost immediately and let out a gasp or something. But the lawyers were just confused. Everyone ended up stepping outside the room and a whirlwind erupted and the bailiffs were called over. MY ex screamed and slapped me and they had to actually put handcuffs on her! This was a big deal for the insurance company I guess and the lawyer's boss/client actually showed up and asked for statements and everything. Even a detective showed up and I started to regret coming but I gave my statement and did not really lie about anything, but I was vague about where I was currently living. I ended up staying in town for almost a month, and it was a crazy month in a cheap motel. I showed evidence of my ex's cheating to anyone who cared and I tried to meet with the kids, but the youngest did not know me and the then 7 year old told me to "fuck myself", which is fair I guess. The police were pissed off and started civil litigation for the costs of searching for me, a detective or soemthing actually flew in from another state to question me. Luckily this whole time I did not get arrested for anything as I did not want my fingerprints being linked to my new name an such. Essentially I had to pay a large fine and immediately paid the fine in cash to the surprise of the police. As far as I was concerned I was done with this town. My ex-fiance served me a civil lawsuit for multiple different things and my mom helped, but I was a leaf in the wind long before anything came of it. I am back in my new city and never plan to go back. I stopped spying on them after a few months of ruining her insurance plans and moved on with my life. This happened some years ago and I am much better off now, but I am tired now and need to go to sleep. If there is interest I will let you know what happened with me after all this.

UPDATE:
Hello everyone, thank you for taking interest in my life. I only want to do 1 update and lay it all out. Mostly I just wanted to let people know where I went with my life, because a lot of people seem interested. I might answer a few questions in the comments if someone has a burning question.
I am not going to say anything about how to disappear because we can't discuss potential crimes on this board, but look up the case of how **Jack Barsky a former KGB spy entered the US and obtained credentials. Literally millions of undocumented immgrants do this to be able to work for companies in the US as well. Uncle Sam just wants those taxes paid. I'm not sure about the details of the insurance investigation and how they were looking for me, but I never got so much as a phone call from them before I met them in person.
I have no intention to try to seek revenge anymore, because I believe "violent delights have violent ends" now. As far as I am concerned, my ex-fiance's life is hard enough and anything else I did would just hurt the kids. After everything blew up with my ex, I left the town and did not reach out to my brother anymore and even stopped checking up on the situation with my Ex. Having no family and friends and starting over in the world is lonely and terrifying, but equally exciting and hopeful.
So how did I reset my life upon reaching a new city? Well I had a lot of money in cash that I used to stay in a motel for a few months while I got all my documents in order and looked for work. Because I thought that my home computer would be searched when I went missing, I could not really plan much of this stuff beforehand. I realized that without a college degree linked to your name, it was difficult to find a job with my skillset. So I decided to just make my own company and post advertisements about setting up custom dispatch software, editing videos and presentations, among other tasks. I only received a few different jobs doing this and it did not even pay my living expenses. After I did a few jobs for the same company, I made friends with a project manager and got hired at a reasonable salary. To this day, my finances are only about 70% of what I was making before, but I am happy with what I have.
I spent a lot of time finding people with similar stories on the internet and eventually got involved with a Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW) group. We basically just talked shit about women all the time and the positive feedback loop made me a pretty resentful/misogynistic person. I went so far as making fake accounts to harrass women online, so I don't want to go into anymore details because I am a bit embarrassed and remorseful now. I got on Tinder and started hooking up with women to make up for lost time. Throwing money around and lying to them became a way of life for me and I would cheat on basically every woman I got with because I thought they were all doing it too. I got caught and I would pretend like I didn't understand why they were mad with me until they left or tried to forgive me just for me to do it again. Not proud of this either.
A couple of years ago one of the women that I was sleeping with regularly got pregnant and came to me all excited with the news. Now I immediately accused her of cheating and threw her out of my apartment and there was just a look of shock on her face. Remember, I thought I was infertile so in my mind I just put another THOT in her place. I continued to mock her for a bit and even messaged my MGTOW buddies about what I did. I openly confessed to cheating on her and showed her proof. I agreed to a paternity test while she was still pregnant just because I didn't want her to get the courts involved and I was shocked with the result. I cried and tried to hug her and she screamed threw some papers at me and told me she never wanted to see me again. I went home and drank, happy that I was going to be a dad(for real this time) but sad who I had become. Like I said, I don't want you to root for me because I am not a good person.
For the remainder of the pregnancy, she would not even speak to me long enough for me to explain my actions, but I totally understood why. When the baby was born(a girl), I showed up to the hospital to sign the birth certificate and at the same time met with her lawyer (which turned out to be her sister) to go over child support stuff that we had already spoke about. I went for a "hail marry" and offered to sign any paper they wanted if she would just have coffee with me for 30 minutes to explain things (She wanted full custody and generous payments). I never got a lawyer because I just wanted to make amends and I thought a lawyer would throw up obstacles to try to protect me or my finances.
I met with her for coffee and to my surprise she let me speak uninterrupted for almost 20 minutes. I did not completely tell her the truth about my past, but she understood why I wanted a paternity test, but did not excuse my behavior in mocking her, throwing her out, and cheating. I signed the papers, but begged her to let me see my daughter and be part of her life. She said that I was unstable and that I needed intensive therapy before that would ever happen. Of course I obliged to the therapy.
I learned a lot in therapy and did a lot of research about the fallout of cheating and whatnot. Turns out there are a lot of women who had been hurt by cheaters and homewreckers too(duh) and that my view of women was toxic to say the least. I cut it off with my MGTOW buddies because I thought that atmosphere would be a detriment to my progress. I don't want to attack that group, because I think there are some good people in that group that are just broken and looking for answers. I think having a baby girl was a real punch in the gut to stop treating women so poorly.
I was finally able to see my daughter when she was 7 months old and began supervised visits every other weekend. I had dutifully paid the child support and made every attempt to talk to her mother and try to make amends. One night after our daughter we got drunk and started kissing which turned into sex. When we woke up the next morning she was emberassed and just asked me to leave, but she made it seem like she kind of wanted to make things work. It took a long time but we moved in together after she lost her job to Covid19 and are currently living together. Her family hates me and this has held us back from marriage talk or anything. Hell, I skipped our daughter's 2nd birthday celebration because her lawyer-sister didn't want to see me. I hope this turns out well for me, and I know I already have better than I deserve. For now, the pandemic has me working from home and my girl takes care of our daughter and makes me food and such. She is still suspicious of me and comes into my office to see what I am doing regularly, but I don't mind. For now, I'm just going to try to be there for my daughter and try to make it up to her mom. I'm still trying to think of things I can do or say but for now I am still in zoom therapy and just doing my best. I don't think I can ever really tell anyone everything, which is why I decided to tell the strangers of reddit. I am sorry for those people that thought I was a hero in my initial post.
Please don't let your hatred boil inside you friends, I almost missed out on something great and I may still miss out if I am not careful. This is going to be the only update, unless I come back years from now to tell you all what happened. Best of luck to everyone.
Small edit: Someone corrected me that the spy I was thinking of was Jack Barsky not Yuri Besmenov!



submitted by LazarusThrowaway to ProRevenge [link] [comments]

/r/RedDeadOnline Simple Questions & FAQ Thread.

/RedDeadOnline Simple Questions & FAQ Thread.

If your question isn't answered below, leave a comment and a community member will try to help!
If there are any frequently asked questions missing, then please comment with that question & what the answer is. Please also feel free to improve on any of the answers below.
We'll reward members who help most often with a special flair / badge to use on the sub!
We'll be redirecting all simple/one liner questions to this thread in the hopes of reducing spam/repeat posts. Please report any you see under Rule 6, commonly posted question.

PC / Next-Gen / Stand-alone Questions

Q) If I buy on Rockstar Launcher, can I play with friends on Steam?
Yes, you can play with friends on PC regardless of what store they bought it from. Even Steam GTA, uses Rockstar to launch the game.
Q) Can we transfer our characters from PS4 and Xbox One to PC?
No, you cannot transfer characters to a different platform, e.g Xbox to PC. The game is cross-gen however, so if you play PS4 you can continue on PS5.
Q) If I buy a next-gen console, can I play with friends on old-gen consoles?
Yes! The game is backwards compatible on console, so you can play with friends on PS4/PS5 or XB1/XBX
Q) If I already own Red Dead Redemption 2, do I need to buy Red Dead Online again when it goes standalone?
No! Red Dead Online is still part of the RDR2 game.

Red Dead Online: General Questions

Q) What are the currencies in Red Dead Online?
Cash, the main currency in RDO that is earned through almost every activity.
Gold Bars, the premium currency in RDO that can be purchased using real money. You earn a small amount of gold for completing activities online.
Role Tokens, earned by levelling up in each role, used to unlock abilities & items for the five current roles.
Q) What is the Outlaw pass?
The Outlaw Pass is an in-game purchase using the premium Gold currency that allows you to earn items/rewards as you level up.
Outlaw Pass are only available for a limited time and once they finish, you can't access them again.
Q) What are Daily Challenges?
Every day at 6am UTC, you are given a new list of 7 daily challenges as well as 15 role daily challenges. They can range from hunting specific animals or finding certain herbs, to completing PVP/Freeroam events.
Initially, you earn 0.1 Gold per completed challenge plus a bonus if you complete all 7 regular challenges.
After completing at least 1 challenge per day for 7 days, you then earn a little more gold per challenge each week before your daily challenge streak resets after 28 days.
Your daily challenge streak will then reset, and you start the process again.
In addition to this, there are also 3 daily challenges for each role available and you can do a max of 9 role daily challenges. Daily challenges for roles will also differ depending on your rank within each role.
Q) What are Free-roam events (role/normal)
Every 45 minutes, you'll receive an invite to a free-roam event. Free-roam events can be activities such as fishing, horse racing, archery competitions, or PVP. You earn XP + cash for completing.
There are also role specific events that happen every 90 minutes, you need to be ranked up and enrolled in each role before you'll see invites for these activities.
You can see the schedule for free-roam & role events here
Q) What are ability cards?
Abilities in Red Dead Online are assigned to a character through Ability Cards. These are divided into two different types. Dead Eye cards that grant abilities only active during Dead Eye, while Passive cards add abilities that are always active, no matter what you do. Passive abilities are further divided into several different categories.
In Red Dead Online, it's not possible to assign all of the available abilities to the character, as there are only 4 slots available. One slot is used for a single Dead Eye card, while the remaining three slots are used for Passive abilities. Source.
Q) What are the playing styles online?
Defensive: Players in Defensive mode will be indicated by a shield icon, will take reduced damage from enemy players, cannot be lassoed, melee attacked, executed or targeted with auto-aim. Defensive players will also be excluded from being targeted in PvP-related missions such as Player Assassination. Those who attack Defensive players receive hefty penalties via the Hostility system, while players who initiate conflict while in Defensive mode will be instantly pulled out of Defensive mode and also receive similar Hostility penalties.
Offensive: The Offensive playing style is set as the default and is how most players traditionally interact in Free Roam – free to engage in hostile contact with other players if you are prepared to accept the potential consequences.

Red Dead Online: Other Questions

Q) How do I dual wield?
At rank 25, you can buy an off-hand holster which allows you to equip a second handgun.
Q) How do I change appearance
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to Online Options > Scroll down to Change Appearance
Q) How do I setup camp
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to camp options > Choose location for camp
Camps can be used to access wardrobes, collect items you've ordered via the catalog, craft & cook and fast travel if upgraded.
A small camp is suitable for 1-4 posse members and costs $1 per in game day. A large camp is suitable for 1-7 posse members and costs $2 per in game day.
Q) Where is the gun locker?
You unlock it through the trader role, then purchase it at Wilderness Outfitters in camp, and then it appears at your specific tent in camp.
Q) How do I buy a dog?
At your camp, head to Cripps and access Wilderness Outfitters, from there you can select the dog option.
Q) What can dogs be used for?
Looking cool at your camp and warning you of camp raids when you unlock the perk. Not really much else. (They're not companions like Dogmeat from Fallout 4)
Q) I saw an item, but can't find it on PC or Xbox One.
Some items are exclusive to PS4, so you may see things promoted by Rockstar that aren't yet available on your platform or it may be from an old Outlaw Pass.
Q) What is the best Horse
This post should help.
Q) What are the best Weapons
Captain Balrick's arsenal should help you decide
Q) What is the best ability card loadout
This post in the /RedDeadOnline mega-guide should help.
Q) What is the best way to make money/gold
This post should help.
Q) Where are the treasure maps located?
You can find them all here.

Red Dead Online: Roles

Q) Can I have more than 1 role active?
Yes! You can play in all roles concurrently.

Bounty Hunter Role

Q) What is the Bounty Hunter role?
Get started as a Bounty Hunter when you meet the Legendary Bounty Hunter in Rhodes and purchase the Bounty Hunter License. The standard cost is 15 Gold Bars.
Licensed Bounty Hunters can pick up work by visiting bounty boards located near law offices, post offices and train stations across the states. There is no shortage of criminals to be dealt with and the targets range in difficulty, from lone low-level petty thieves to notorious outlaws with armed protection details and a watchful eye. Taking on an armed gang or bringing multiple targets to justice is made easier with the help of a Posse, who will all earn a cut of the final bounty. And keep in mind, bringing in targets alive will yield a greater reward.
Reaching Bounty Hunter Rank 12 will open up the opportunity to take down other players with high bounties of $20 or more. Bounty Hunters will be notified through an invite about the opportunity to hunt down the wanted player when they’re nearby in a structured pursuit. The wanted player must escape (or surrender) within the allotted time and if captured, they’ll also have opportunities to escape and flee. If the Bounty Hunter brings the target in alive, they’ll receive an award while the criminal serves time.
Q) What are legendary bounties?
Legendary bounties are high-tier bounties, they usually involve a mini-story/cut scene. They're also much tougher than a regular bounty.
There are 10 legendary bounties that can be access as part of the Bounty Hunter role and 3 that can be accessed (when they've all released) by purchasing the Prestigious Bounty Hunter upgrade.

Trader Role

Q) What is the Trader role?
our trusted camp companion, Cripps, has long dreamed of starting a trading outpost and you’re going to help him make it happen - by becoming a partner in the fledgling Cripps Trading Company. Combining Cripps’ lifetime of working with animal materials and your skills at hunting and frontier security, you’ll have the perfect ingredients to develop a thriving business.
Once you agree to help Cripps, you can start turning your camp into a business by sourcing items for Cripps to convert into sellable goods. An investment of 15 Gold Bars to purchase a Butcher’s Table will get your business up and running.
Once you’re operational, you’ll provide Cripps with Materials through hunting animals – pristine pelts and carcasses will provide better yields. You’ll also take on Resupply Missions to acquire additional necessities through less than savory tactics. Once supplied, Cripps will begin turning the materials into sellable goods, which can then be sent out on low-risk local deliveries for payment or across greater distances for a premium.
Improve your hunting yields with a Hunting Wagon for larger hauls or upgrade your Delivery Wagons for larger sales. As business flourishes and your presence becomes known in the market, your competition may grow jealous of your success, so keep an eye out for raids on your camp. As your trade grows, you might consider purchasing a camp dog from Wilderness Outfitters. Not only are dogs great camp companions for all players, but a Trader of sufficient rank can teach their dog to warn of incoming attacks.
Q) Can I skip the medium wagon?
No, you need to buy the medium wagon, then the large wagon.
Q) What can I sell to Cripps?
You can sell carcasses & small animals (e.g squirrels). Along with some animal parts, e.g feathers.
Cripps does not accept meat, fish or skinned carcasses.
Q) How long does it take Cripps to make goods after resupplying?
Cripps requires materials and supplies to produce goods. You give him materials by donating carcasses and pelts. He uses two units of materials to produce one good. You either buy supplies or obtain them through resupply missions. Either way, that gives enough supplies to produce 25 goods. As long as both materials and supplies are available, Cripps produces 1 good every 2 minutes (1 in-game hour).

Collector Role

Q) What is the Collector role?
Seek out the mysterious travelling saleswoman Madam Nazar to acquire the Collector’s Bag and get started on the path of the Collector. It will cost 15 Gold Bars for access to collecting and selling rare items.
With Madam Nazar’s help, you will be able to explore the world finding valuable treasures, whether they’re discarded Tarot cards in abandoned camps, buried treasures unearthed with your trusty shovel, hidden family heirlooms and more.
Collect individual pieces and sell them off directly to Madam Nazar or collect entire sets for even more valuable sales. As you progress, you’ll unlock enhanced searching skills; more useful tools like a metal detector; benefits like increased carrying capacities; the ability for your horse to directly pluck and pass herbs to you while mounted, and more.
Q) Where is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar can be located by completing a map/collection for her. Her location is posted daily on /RedDeadDailies - She changes location at 6am UTC time each day.
You can also find her using https://madamnazar.io/
Q) Who is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar is the Collector role vendor, you can obtain maps, cosmetics & other items such as the shovel from her.
Q) Why is Madam Nazar?
...
Q) Where do you buy a shovel?
From Madam Nazar, it costs $350. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Where do you buy a metal detector?
From Madam Nazar, it unlocks at level 5 and costs $700. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Can you sell collector items individually or does it need to be a full set?
Yes, however you get far less money than you would if you sold a full collection
Q) Can you only have one collector map active?
Yes, if you try to open a second map, it may auto-close and almost looks like a bug, however, you should only try and activate one at any given time.

Moonshiner Role:

Q) I already met Maggie but I didn't buy a shack, now I can't find how to buy the shack?
In the options menu (left on the D-pad, or L on PC), select "Camp & Properties" → "Moonshine Shack" → "Shack Location".
Will be expanded upon soon...

Naturalist Role

Will be updated soon...

Useful Red Dead Online Resources

This thread will be posted at 6am UTC every Monday. We'll aim to update & add any additional questions in time for the new thread being posted each week.
submitted by RedDeadMods to RedDeadOnline [link] [comments]

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀

Introduction

PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️.
This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD.
Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.

Big picture

1.1 Macroeconomic View

I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically.
Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome.
Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low.
Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets.
On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy).
That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall.
I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic.
If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.

1.2 Sector(s) View

Figure 4: Video game market value worldwide from 2012 to 2023 (in billion USD)
Figure 5: Retail ecommerce sales in the United States from 2017 to 2024 (in million USD)
Video game total adressable market and ecommerce total adressable market keep growing, that's all we need to know on a macro-level. Now, the real question is not about the market itself but about the compny business model.

GameStop Corp.

  • Market cap $1.31B
  • 1-year performance 209.87%
  • Shares outstanding 69.75M
  • Short interest 68.13M (97.68% of the outstanding shares)
  • Held by insiders Between 13.6% to 27.3%
  • Held by institutions Between 110.5% to 122.0%
  • Owned by Ryan Cohen 12.9%
  • Owned by BlackRock 17.1%

2.2 Timeline


Table 1: GameStop timeline.
Short-term the sector is pretty hot with quarantines and the launch of next-generation consoles which will impact positively year-on-year sales growth. The pandemic could have been an opportunity but GME has still too many physical stores and not enough ecommerce presence yet to take advantage of it.
For the next earning release, the question is : how much PS5 and Xbox GameStop was able to get? And how much they sold in bundles (at high margins)?
Although it’s still unclear from what I’ve found it’s pretty bullish:
GameStop Corp. employees across the country were caught by surprise on Saturday when the video-game chain suddenly announced new shipments of the highly coveted PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X consoles - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/gamestop-employees-rattled-by-surprise-shipment-of-ps4-xbox
inverse.com/gaming/xbox-series-x-restock-walmart-target-gamestop-january-2021
https://preview.redd.it/h8lt7bwhd6961.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=e29536613629d3d86bce03bc9e4a89a4e983c337
Figure 6 : https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=gamestop

https://preview.redd.it/n42qka5prw961.jpg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e634ddea7ccf954277a70e57ffa4e957badff22b
The recent Microsoft deal is extremely bullish for GameStop and could help the company to reach profitability sooner than expected. Here are the details about how it could impact GameStop’s profitability:
  • In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.

2.2 Business Model and Management

  • Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
    • GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
Table 2: GameStop is dangerously (for the shorts) getting close to profitability.
  • The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soon despite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
  • GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
  • GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
  • GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
  • GME is diversifying sales to include more high margin items like PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
  • Focusing on loyalty programs like power ups and rebranding.
  • As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
  • GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
    • I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
  • Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
  • "We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will include positive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilities and continued benefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
  • A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
  • Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
  • Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
  • OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
  • If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
  • Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.

2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis


Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020
In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high.
Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia).
In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation:
Short Squeeze Potential - If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding.
If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many.
Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital.
How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
  • Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
  • Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
If you want to do a further analysis on short-metrics I put some additional figures - you might find some kind of pattern idk.
Figure 8: Share statistics of December 2020
Figure 9: Available shares to short vs. fees in %.

2.4 Is GME Manipulated?

Maybe.
I know there is actually a prob. with the % daily returns (it isn't equal to 100% BUT the proportions still hold true on a non 100 point basis). The main point is that: negative daily returns were much higher than positive ones.
If you are familiar with the stock market, you might have noticed that winners do not act like this usually: total return was +21% yet there has been 53.3% red days. If you look at regular stocks which have positive cumulative returns it doesn’t happen that often (outliers aside).
This is why I suspect that the stock is being manipulated but the weird stats might be explained just because the stock kept being shorted although it was not enough to keep the price down.
Another opinion on this:
  • Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.

2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?

I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
  • If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
I would like to elaborate on this very idea. For this, check GME statistics for 2020:
https://preview.redd.it/t05xum2zc6961.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2e092560bba3b3091a6fe8bf0bceea2ce7b9f5c
https://preview.redd.it/odbxo3sxc6961.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=7897f1dac841aa381b916046c3652e2d2c4ece68
  • Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
  • The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
  • You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
  • Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot…
TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.

Risks

3.1 Upside Risks

  • RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
    • It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
Figure 10: Last RC Ventures GME Purchases. Notice how the biggest numbers (e.g. 800K & 500K) while the smaller ones weren't (e.g. 320K, 256K or 128K).
Figure 11: Check who tweeted this on the same date as the 900K shares purchase?
EDIT : the recent 900K-share purchase after hours were not "purchases", it was quarterly option settlement. - KYJELLYTIME69.
  • This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
  • Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
  • RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
  • RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
    • On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
    • Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
  • Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
    • Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
  • Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
  • A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
  • Dividend reintroduction.

3.2 Downside Risks

  • New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
  • Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
    • Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
  • Share dilution.

3.3 Overview


Table 6: Upside risks
Table 7: Downside risks

3.4 Commentary

Figure 12: GME is one of or even THE most shorted stock for its valuation (in terms of % short interest).
This means two things:
  • It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
  • If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
    • Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
    • Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
      • I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.

Conclusion

4.1 Prices Targets

Here is a summary of my post:
When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains.
Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020
Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns Negative daily returns
49.3 % 50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return Worst daily return
23.0 % -13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt.
Table 8: PTs.

4.2 Valuations

“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/.
“GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade.
Thanks for reading.

4.4 Letter to the GME Gang

💎🙌 🚀
BIG SHOUT OUT TO THE ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE GME GANG.
I WILL MAKE MORE DDs IN THE FUTURE IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE.
I AM NOT DELUSIONAL OR COMPLETELY DUMB I KNOW THE TRADE IS RISKY BUT IF WE ARE RIGHT, WE WILL MOON THAT IS FOR SURE.
LET’S MAKE HISTORY WITH THIS ONE.
GME GANG 4 LIFE.
Sincerely yours,
ShortTheNasdaq, a proud member of the GME gang.
💎🙌 🚀
EDIT 2: Delos Capital Advisors turns BULLISH for GME throughout 2021 (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/05/stocks-to-buy-in-2021-strategist-names-three-top-picks.html).
MORE LINKS (not included in the pdf):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-gamestop-gme-135401645.html
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krdqp5/gme_4q20_financial_model_update/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krgvq6/gme_gang_digital_is_the_rebirth_of_gamestop_not/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr98ym/gme_gang_we_need_to_complain_about_naked_short/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr02y8/gme_gang_18_consecutive_days_on_nyse_threshold/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-soars-as-short-sellers-take-a-hit-51610572262
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/heavily-shorted-gamestop-soars-most-ever-as-day-traders-circle
FAQ 1 : Is GameStop going bankrupt? 300%+ yearly growth ecom sales, already closing top ~20% of their most unprofitable locations, high margin partnership with Microsoft, new gaming console generation, Moody's recent credit upgrade on 8 Jul 2020 from C (negative outlook) to B3 (stable outlook)... So extremely unlikely.
FAQ 2 : GameStop employees complain about the company, so is the stock going down? Well listen to Apple's iPhone manufacturers or Amazon employees... There is no correlation between their words and the stock price, if any there is a negative one.
Positions: shares, Nov. calls and some cash on the sidelines to buy the dips.
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) without the corrections and updates but with ALL the references if you want to work from this post or dive deeper on certain points.
submitted by ShortTheNasdaq to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

/r/RedDeadOnline Simple Questions & FAQ Thread.

/RedDeadOnline Simple Questions & FAQ Thread.

If your question isn't answered below, leave a comment and a community member will try to help!
If there are any frequently asked questions missing, then please comment with that question & what the answer is. Please also feel free to improve on any of the answers below.
We'll reward members who help most often with a special flair / badge to use on the sub!
We'll be redirecting all simple/one liner questions to this thread in the hopes of reducing spam/repeat posts. Please report any you see under Rule 6, commonly posted question.

PC / Next-Gen / Stand-alone Questions

Q) If I buy on Rockstar Launcher, can I play with friends on Steam?
Yes, you can play with friends on PC regardless of what store they bought it from. Even Steam GTA, uses Rockstar to launch the game.
Q) Can we transfer our characters from PS4 and Xbox One to PC?
No, you cannot transfer characters to a different platform, e.g Xbox to PC. The game is cross-gen however, so if you play PS4 you can continue on PS5.
Q) If I buy a next-gen console, can I play with friends on old-gen consoles?
Yes! The game is backwards compatible on console, so you can play with friends on PS4/PS5 or XB1/XBX
Q) If I already own Red Dead Redemption 2, do I need to buy Red Dead Online again when it goes standalone?
No! Red Dead Online is still part of the RDR2 game.

Red Dead Online: General Questions

Q) What are the currencies in Red Dead Online?
Cash, the main currency in RDO that is earned through almost every activity.
Gold Bars, the premium currency in RDO that can be purchased using real money. You earn a small amount of gold for completing activities online.
Role Tokens, earned by levelling up in each role, used to unlock abilities & items for the five current roles.
Q) What is the Outlaw pass?
The Outlaw Pass is an in-game purchase using the premium Gold currency that allows you to earn items/rewards as you level up.
Outlaw Pass are only available for a limited time and once they finish, you can't access them again.
Q) What are Daily Challenges?
Every day at 6am UTC, you are given a new list of 7 daily challenges as well as 15 role daily challenges. They can range from hunting specific animals or finding certain herbs, to completing PVP/Freeroam events.
Initially, you earn 0.1 Gold per completed challenge plus a bonus if you complete all 7 regular challenges.
After completing at least 1 challenge per day for 7 days, you then earn a little more gold per challenge each week before your daily challenge streak resets after 28 days.
Your daily challenge streak will then reset, and you start the process again.
In addition to this, there are also 3 daily challenges for each role available and you can do a max of 9 role daily challenges. Daily challenges for roles will also differ depending on your rank within each role.
Q) What are Free-roam events (role/normal)
Every 45 minutes, you'll receive an invite to a free-roam event. Free-roam events can be activities such as fishing, horse racing, archery competitions, or PVP. You earn XP + cash for completing.
There are also role specific events that happen every 90 minutes, you need to be ranked up and enrolled in each role before you'll see invites for these activities.
You can see the schedule for free-roam & role events here
Q) What are ability cards?
Abilities in Red Dead Online are assigned to a character through Ability Cards. These are divided into two different types. Dead Eye cards that grant abilities only active during Dead Eye, while Passive cards add abilities that are always active, no matter what you do. Passive abilities are further divided into several different categories.
In Red Dead Online, it's not possible to assign all of the available abilities to the character, as there are only 4 slots available. One slot is used for a single Dead Eye card, while the remaining three slots are used for Passive abilities. Source.
Q) What are the playing styles online?
Defensive: Players in Defensive mode will be indicated by a shield icon, will take reduced damage from enemy players, cannot be lassoed, melee attacked, executed or targeted with auto-aim. Defensive players will also be excluded from being targeted in PvP-related missions such as Player Assassination. Those who attack Defensive players receive hefty penalties via the Hostility system, while players who initiate conflict while in Defensive mode will be instantly pulled out of Defensive mode and also receive similar Hostility penalties.
Offensive: The Offensive playing style is set as the default and is how most players traditionally interact in Free Roam – free to engage in hostile contact with other players if you are prepared to accept the potential consequences.

Red Dead Online: Other Questions

Q) How do I dual wield?
At rank 25, you can buy an off-hand holster which allows you to equip a second handgun.
Q) How do I change appearance
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to Online Options > Scroll down to Change Appearance
Q) How do I setup camp
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to camp options > Choose location for camp
Camps can be used to access wardrobes, collect items you've ordered via the catalog, craft & cook and fast travel if upgraded.
A small camp is suitable for 1-4 posse members and costs $1 per in game day. A large camp is suitable for 1-7 posse members and costs $2 per in game day.
Q) Where is the gun locker?
You unlock it through the trader role, then purchase it at Wilderness Outfitters in camp, and then it appears at your specific tent in camp.
Q) How do I buy a dog?
At your camp, head to Cripps and access Wilderness Outfitters, from there you can select the dog option.
Q) What can dogs be used for?
Looking cool at your camp and warning you of camp raids when you unlock the perk. Not really much else. (They're not companions like Dogmeat from Fallout 4)
Q) I saw an item, but can't find it on PC or Xbox One.
Some items are exclusive to PS4, so you may see things promoted by Rockstar that aren't yet available on your platform or it may be from an old Outlaw Pass.
Q) What is the best Horse
This post should help.
Q) What are the best Weapons
Captain Balrick's arsenal should help you decide
Q) What is the best ability card loadout
This post in the /RedDeadOnline mega-guide should help.
Q) What is the best way to make money/gold
This post should help.
Q) Where are the treasure maps located?
You can find them all here.

Red Dead Online: Roles

Q) Can I have more than 1 role active?
Yes! You can play in all roles concurrently.

Bounty Hunter Role

Q) What is the Bounty Hunter role?
Get started as a Bounty Hunter when you meet the Legendary Bounty Hunter in Rhodes and purchase the Bounty Hunter License. The standard cost is 15 Gold Bars.
Licensed Bounty Hunters can pick up work by visiting bounty boards located near law offices, post offices and train stations across the states. There is no shortage of criminals to be dealt with and the targets range in difficulty, from lone low-level petty thieves to notorious outlaws with armed protection details and a watchful eye. Taking on an armed gang or bringing multiple targets to justice is made easier with the help of a Posse, who will all earn a cut of the final bounty. And keep in mind, bringing in targets alive will yield a greater reward.
Reaching Bounty Hunter Rank 12 will open up the opportunity to take down other players with high bounties of $20 or more. Bounty Hunters will be notified through an invite about the opportunity to hunt down the wanted player when they’re nearby in a structured pursuit. The wanted player must escape (or surrender) within the allotted time and if captured, they’ll also have opportunities to escape and flee. If the Bounty Hunter brings the target in alive, they’ll receive an award while the criminal serves time.
Q) What are legendary bounties?
Legendary bounties are high-tier bounties, they usually involve a mini-story/cut scene. They're also much tougher than a regular bounty.
There are 10 legendary bounties that can be access as part of the Bounty Hunter role and 3 that can be accessed (when they've all released) by purchasing the Prestigious Bounty Hunter upgrade.

Trader Role

Q) What is the Trader role?
our trusted camp companion, Cripps, has long dreamed of starting a trading outpost and you’re going to help him make it happen - by becoming a partner in the fledgling Cripps Trading Company. Combining Cripps’ lifetime of working with animal materials and your skills at hunting and frontier security, you’ll have the perfect ingredients to develop a thriving business.
Once you agree to help Cripps, you can start turning your camp into a business by sourcing items for Cripps to convert into sellable goods. An investment of 15 Gold Bars to purchase a Butcher’s Table will get your business up and running.
Once you’re operational, you’ll provide Cripps with Materials through hunting animals – pristine pelts and carcasses will provide better yields. You’ll also take on Resupply Missions to acquire additional necessities through less than savory tactics. Once supplied, Cripps will begin turning the materials into sellable goods, which can then be sent out on low-risk local deliveries for payment or across greater distances for a premium.
Improve your hunting yields with a Hunting Wagon for larger hauls or upgrade your Delivery Wagons for larger sales. As business flourishes and your presence becomes known in the market, your competition may grow jealous of your success, so keep an eye out for raids on your camp. As your trade grows, you might consider purchasing a camp dog from Wilderness Outfitters. Not only are dogs great camp companions for all players, but a Trader of sufficient rank can teach their dog to warn of incoming attacks.
Q) Can I skip the medium wagon?
No, you need to buy the medium wagon, then the large wagon.
Q) What can I sell to Cripps?
You can sell carcasses & small animals (e.g squirrels). Along with some animal parts, e.g feathers.
Cripps does not accept meat, fish or skinned carcasses.
Q) How long does it take Cripps to make goods after resupplying?
Cripps requires materials and supplies to produce goods. You give him materials by donating carcasses and pelts. He uses two units of materials to produce one good. You either buy supplies or obtain them through resupply missions. Either way, that gives enough supplies to produce 25 goods. As long as both materials and supplies are available, Cripps produces 1 good every 2 minutes (1 in-game hour).

Collector Role

Q) What is the Collector role?
Seek out the mysterious travelling saleswoman Madam Nazar to acquire the Collector’s Bag and get started on the path of the Collector. It will cost 15 Gold Bars for access to collecting and selling rare items.
With Madam Nazar’s help, you will be able to explore the world finding valuable treasures, whether they’re discarded Tarot cards in abandoned camps, buried treasures unearthed with your trusty shovel, hidden family heirlooms and more.
Collect individual pieces and sell them off directly to Madam Nazar or collect entire sets for even more valuable sales. As you progress, you’ll unlock enhanced searching skills; more useful tools like a metal detector; benefits like increased carrying capacities; the ability for your horse to directly pluck and pass herbs to you while mounted, and more.
Q) Where is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar can be located by completing a map/collection for her. Her location is posted daily on /RedDeadDailies - She changes location at 6am UTC time each day.
You can also find her using https://madamnazar.io/
Q) Who is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar is the Collector role vendor, you can obtain maps, cosmetics & other items such as the shovel from her.
Q) Why is Madam Nazar?
...
Q) Where do you buy a shovel?
From Madam Nazar, it costs $350. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Where do you buy a metal detector?
From Madam Nazar, it unlocks at level 5 and costs $700. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Can you sell collector items individually or does it need to be a full set?
Yes, however you get far less money than you would if you sold a full collection
Q) Can you only have one collector map active?
Yes, if you try to open a second map, it may auto-close and almost looks like a bug, however, you should only try and activate one at any given time.

Moonshiner Role:

Q) I already met Maggie but I didn't buy a shack, now I can't find how to buy the shack?
In the options menu (left on the D-pad, or L on PC), select "Camp & Properties" → "Moonshine Shack" → "Shack Location".
Will be expanded upon soon...

Naturalist Role

Will be updated soon...

Useful Red Dead Online Resources

This thread will be posted at 6am UTC every Monday. We'll aim to update & add any additional questions in time for the new thread being posted each week.
submitted by RedDeadMods to RedDeadOnline [link] [comments]

My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.

I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders

Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

GME Gang: On the Subject of the Golden Bridge and Its Inevitable Destruction By Fire 🚀🚀🚀

Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.
Sun Tzu, Art of War
Everything was for tomorrow, but tomorrow never came. The present was only a bridge and on this bridge they are still groaning, as the world groans, and not one idiot ever thinks of blowing up the bridge.
Henry Miller, Tropic of Capricorn
I was wrong! Blow the bridge! Blow the fucking bridge!
Tugg Speedman, Tropic Thunder
Hello again GME Gang! It’s been a while since I last ranted at you, but I know we’ve been in some very good hands here at WSB with all the great DD folks have posted over the past few weeks. So no need for CPT Hubbard to go for 11 again on the Thumbscroll Dial (until today, that is). I’ve enjoyed a lot of these posts very much, so thank you on behalf of myself and the attention-deficient Rocket Children for continuing to deliver that 100% Chaff-Free GME-grade Wheat at such a feverish clip.
Now, I am going to get to Hong Kong’s Lamest Outlaw and his disconcertingly vacant eyes here shortly. But first I want to take you on a journey back to Christmas Eve, in the year of our lord 2020—a heady time in all our lives. We were all so young and innocent then, weren’t we? Fresh off the run up to 22. Blissfully oblivious that we were living in the last moments where the question What is The War of 1812? was the only acceptable Jeopardy question for the answer: The Last Time the Goddamn U.S. Capitol Was Stormed. This was also before we all became irresponsibly overleveraged in Cathie Wood’s Ornamental Gourds ETF. It was a wondrous, confusing time.
But before we get too off topic, let’s all hop in my 1985 DeLorean (purchased with proceeds from my Jan 15 calls – thanks RC!), fire up the ol’ Flux Capacitor, and get that shit to 88 because something happened that evening that is Worth Pondering—particularly in light of recent events. And just as a friendly reminder: even though you’re going back in time in a DeLorean, no one here has to deviate funds away from GME shares to Save the Clock Tower and you are under no obligation to fulfill a scenario where you wind up making out with your Mom (unless your Mom is Cathie Wood like mine—in which case maybe just some quick over-the-clothes stuff).
On the Subject of How It Once ‘Twas The Night Before Christmas
So what in the holy fuck happened on the night before Christmas, Captain? Well, while all you Gentiles were sleeping soundly after lying to your children about benign home intruders and before gorging yourself on the teat of late-stage capitalism, me and the rest of the Chosen People were up late eating Chinese food and thinking about tendies (self-hating Jew Joke! Ba-zing!). But then: when out on the electric twitter machine there arose such a clatter, I sprang to my phone to see what was the matter. And what to my wondering eyes did appear, a mysterious tweet from a Rich-Ass Viking who had a lot of fucking interesting things to say about this whole GME situation that’s what.
This tweet, buried as a reply to a tweet sent by Mr. Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann or u/Uberkikz11), simply said: “Merry Christmas. Shhh.” But it included this screen shot:
[**Image Deleted Due to the Mods - check the link below where someone transcribed it - I'll try to add later**]
Now, this tweet to Rod, sent late at night and likely after a strong Mead or three, was very promptly deleted. But your intrepid cub reporter saw this here tweet that night with his own two eyes—seeing as I am a degenerate GME addict and devoted follower of Mr. Rod Alzmann (Hi Rod!). And I took screenshots, of course, like any responsible records custodian might. And so did the dude who wrote a somewhat-overlooked WSB post on this, which included the most pertinent text of the message if you are having trouble reading it here:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kk0omp/christmas_miracle_gamergate_2020_gme_shorts/
Now, what are we to make of this? At the time, I thought it was very interesting. But I did not give it too much attention seeing as how the internet is overcrowded with anonymous weirdos claiming to know more than they do about all sorts of subjects (and now I feel your judging eyes…). Also, there was some very good commentary in that WSB post from some sharp folks about the screenshot author’s questionable use of the shorthand PE/IB—given that private equity and investment banks wouldn’t apparently be involved in a behind-the-scenes transaction with the short funds like what was being discussed there (don’t ask me, I just string together silly words here). But maybe you poke around his Twitter a bit and see for yourself.
Still, plausibility assessments based on preferred nomenclature aside, it seemed to me that some version of that conversation had to be taking place behind the scenes in a situation like this—given the batshit insane short interest, the funds supposedly involved, and the rapid rise in SP coinciding with RC’s share accumulation, December 21st amended 13D filing, and new status as a GME Insider and Board member (just love saying all that in a row, don’t you?).
So the Viking’s screenshot tweet, and the very likely possibility that shorts are in so deep that they’re attempting to negotiate peace with large shareholders behind the scenes, stuck in my tiny little baby brain as a pretty plausible set of scenarios. And from the look of it, it seems like some funds were at least willing to discuss offering these shorts a Golden Bridge away from Certain Fucking Destruction on the open market. And if the words on the screenshot are at all aligned with reality, these short funds have no good options.
Yet it seems like they are still playing hardball to negotiate the carat on this generous bridge offer they’re getting. Why? Maybe they’ve been getting high on their own supply for so long and they don’t know how to see this situation for what it is. Who knows? Maybe there is no Ryan Cohen and we’re all living in a simulation. But if the recent low-rent anti-GME articles and market manipulation efforts we’re seeing are any indication, these overleveraged short fuckers seem to think they’re going to be able to spin out of this hold and drive the SP back down to even smaller peanuts than it’s at now by sheer force of will (and some deployment of well-honed tricks of the trade amirite?) to emerge unscathed. Or even victorious? I dunno—it’s their delusional fantasy sequence.
But do you know what this scenario reminds me of? And this is just coming to me so please bear with me as I’m not showing this to my editor before we print (I haven’t seen this movie in ages – don’t know what made me think of this!). Fuck it, I’m just gonna start riffing here. The shorts trying to thread this needle, against all odds and logic and common sense, reminds me of that hilarious scene in Dumb and Dumber where haplessly delusional Jim Carrey thinks he has a chance with Mary Samsonite Swanson. But the scene is funny because he really doesn’t. Have any chance. At all.
Now, I know this is a 1990s movie originally released on VHS that we haven’t seen it or even seen it referenced in ages. But now that you’re thinking of it again after all this time, doesn’t it remind you of this too? I know, I get it: You’d have to have fucking peanuts for brains for it not to.
(https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1350877969816956934?s=20)
On the Subject of the Continued Internet Bumbling of Mr. Justin Dopierala
Now that screenshot came to mind this past week when something kind of weird happened while we were all enjoying our quick rocket ship ride. And yes, we are briefly going to talk again about Seeking Alpha’s second finest pro-GME author (always been more of a Dmitriy man myself) and recurring CPT Hubbard character, Justin Dopierala (and no, Angela, I do not want to have like 10,000 of his babies).
Last Thursday, after we were all virtually high-fiving one another and counting our future Lambos, Mr. Justin Dopierala, head of Domo Capital and longstanding uber-bull GME shareholder and author at Seeking Alpha (last seen arguing pithily with our own Rod Alzmann about the conservative nature of Rod’s holiday earnings projections. Hi again Rod!), made it known that he sold all of Domo Capital’s 500,000 shares for around $42.50—at the very top of the run up last Thursday morning.
Now, Domo Capital’s business decisions are none of my goddamn business. And there are plenty of market opportunities right now. Shit, I hear there is even a new Cathie Wood Gourd ETF coming online soon that people are really excited about and that I’m sure Justin’s clients would find intriguing. But Domo’s decision to sell seemed curious given a few things: (1) on Wednesday, when the rocket is mid-flight, he got a twitter follow from Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, which he promptly tweeted about with a “get a load of this fuckin’ guy” vibe (oh the sweet, intoxicating arrogance of tendie victory, I too love it so); (2) he had also tweeted that day comparing GME’s rise to Apron’s short squeeze that lasted 4 days—where he also stressed to his followers that Apron had a much lower SI than GME; and (3) he then promptly deleted all of these tweets and almost everything else GME-related on Thursday after apparently introducing 500,000 shares of liquidity into the height of a stressed market up and through the Thursday reversal and down into his own personal tendie town.
Now, after seeing all this, I mouthed off a bit to Justin on the electric twitter machine because that’s kind of my thing. And if you are familiar with my prior ramblings, you know that he and I go way back. In response, Justin talked a bit of shit about your intrepid cub reporter here in a comment on Dimitry Kozin’s October 21, 2020 article about a possible sony revenue share deal or something, the comment section of which has become the preferred SA water cooler over there. (And I can’t link that because Thems The Rulez). And Justin hurt my little feelings a bit with his very sharp denial. And by all means have at it over there to check out his comment about why he sold if you give a shit. That is if Justin hasn’t deleted it yet. Free country and all.
But to summarize, on the subject of treacherous coordination with Melvin Capital, Justin said he would not could not in a boat and he would not could not with a goat. And I for one believe him. And do you know why? Because even though Justin seems like a very smart guy in some ways, he’s also a well-known internet bumbler who blurts out things to his internet friends that a person with better self-control would keep to themselves. And so I do not think he is capable of pulling that off or keeping a secret like that. Also: he said he didn’t so I am more than willing to give someone the benefit of any doubt in that area and you should too. I think we keep Hanlon’s razor firmly in mind here about never attributing to malice that which is explained by stupidity. That is unless, of course, you’re Andrew Left and you’re actually trying to convince people that you didn’t realize there was a US presidential inauguration planned for the same time you announced your Super Important TeeVee Yammerfest ‘21 about GME not being a good candidate for an imminent short squeeze no way no how not if my name isn’t Andrew Left short seller expert extraordinaire and Hong Kong’s Most Misunderstood Ethically-Minded Businessman. You can ascribe the fuck out of malice to that one.
No, even though I really have no idea, I think the most likely thing that happened there was that Gabe Plotkin, Master of the Universe, Head of Melvin Capital, and Acolyte of Perennial Most Ethical Business Man MVP candidate, Steven Cohen—got into Justin’s head when Plotkin followed him on twitter during the 57% (at one point 94%) day last Wednesday and then Justin got a bit chippy about it.
And this is the real reason I’m bringing this up.
Because I honestly care very little about the Nervous Investing Habits of the Wisconsin hedge fund voted most likely to prompt a Mr. Roboto reference. No: I think that Gabe Plotkin sent a message with that follow. Without even ever having to say it directly. And I think that after GME’s huge run and getting a little overexcited while working the twitter machine, Justin maybe had a chance to relax with a warm glass of milk that night and reflect on that message. Which I believe was: I’m watching you, motherfucker. And the only reason I’m paying any attention to some shitstain Wisconsin pseudo-fund on a day like today when I am getting my ass fucking torched is because I want you to know that if this GME shit blows up on me, I’m going to fuck your ass up. I will remember the name Domo Capital forevermore. And when you least expect me, I’ll be there. Now: your move, motherfucker.
And once I realized what might have happened there, that made me feel kinda bad for Justin if he felt that way. Definitely a puss move because fuck you Plotkin I drink your fucking milkshake, right? But bad because that’s a mean message for a business colleague to send, Gabriel. Shame on you if that's how you roll like a big New York bully and scaring our poor Justin like that. And if you just wanted to follow him to shoot the shit or swap listicles and Star Wars Prequel memes with a respected contemporary—even in the very midst of getting fucking annihilated while short GME—well Justin has a totally different account for that and he’s not allowed to access it during work hours.
On The Likelihood That The Most Heavily Shorted Stock in History Is Not Being Subject to Continued Market Manipulation When A Steve Cohen Acolyte Is Losing His Fucking Shirt
Have you heard about Steve Fucking Cohen? The guy who looks like he’s tip top of the list of the premier Hollywood casting agency’s rolodex for Saddest Dipshit Still At the Strip Club After Everyone Else Has Already Gone Home? I’m sorry, that’s mean and my mother told me to always be kind to the truly hideous looking because they’re probably still beautiful on the inside (spoiler alert: he’s not!).
Get a load of this guy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-02/why-sac-capitals-steven-cohen-isnt-in-jail
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-09-02/controversial-hedge-fund-billionaire-steven-cohen-takes-on-hollywood
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/steven-a-cohen-among-the-million-dollar-donors-to-trump-inauguration-2017-04-19
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/steve-cohen-trump
https://nypost.com/2015/06/17/billionaire-steve-cohen-bros-out-with-guy-fieri/
Are you back? I’ve missed you. That was scary, wasn’t it? But allow me to TL/DR all that for you who decided to avoid all that unpleasantness: the dude just has all this bad luck and keeps finding himself into these really awkward situations where someone could potentially question his commitment to ethical business and life practices as well as adherence to the laws of the United States and it’s just not fair and nothing’s fair and Nice Guy Steve Cohen Is The Victim Here So Just Stop Right There Mister I See What You’re Doing. He's also bros with Guy Fieri. Cool.
But why am I talking about a guy who would so clearly pass Billy Madison’s Final Question about Business Ethics without even breaking a sweat?
Because Steve Cohen once had a young Ace Protegee that he loved very much. With the name of an Archangel, so tender and pure. And one day this young man decided he wanted to Prove Himself and Leave Steve’s Nest. And thus was born Melvin Capital, seeded financially by Steve Cohen but named after famed Crooner Melvin H. Tormé, which Gabe’s esteemed mentor Steve would play in his office, over and over, all those years ago.
Now let’s fast forward a bit because I’m boring myself with all that fucking Cohen reading (the bad Cohen—don’t you dare get anyone confused here). As I was saying: Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, has by all accounts gotten himself into a bit of a pickle here being so deeply short GME. Lots of people have analyzed and overanalyzed it, and I’m not going to do it again here; that dead horse is well and truly beaten. But to bottom line it: we’re all just staring down what is essentially an unprecedented math problem that will, at some point, resolve itself. And if it revolves itself in favor of the Good Guys, then the Bad Guys will lose a Fuck-ton of Money. That’s your money block quote, WSJ, so fuck off and stop calling me.
Now: picture yourself as a Steve Cohen acolyte that just bought a $44M Miami Compound and who cannot stop talking about how co-owning the Charlotte Hornets is worth it just for the courtsides alone bro once basketball is a thing again and so what if Michael Jordan keeps calling him Gary it’s close enough. Are you feeling the most financially secure that you have ever felt in your young rich life right about now? Or might you be a wee bit worried that you’ve pursued an investment thesis so reckless, so irrationally and intentionally destructive of equity, that even Melvin H. Tormé himself must be rolling in his fucking grave that you would ever dare put at risk your ability to continue being Michael Jordan’s Gary?
And so here is when I again link my good buddy Jim Cramer’s Great Unveiling of the Tactics Deployed by Short Sellers hoping to change the narrative and construct a “new truth” to suppress the SP in the face of, oh, let’s just say: a very promising turnaround story in a high-growth industry by an e-Commerce Canadian Genius who does not fuck around and who knows what he’s fucking doing and aims to sell more and better video games experiences to crackhead video gamers and there’s a million things he wants to do but just you wait, just you wait.
Is this plot that hard to follow?
And I’ll also say this: I know fuck-all about monitoring order flows or how funds continue to create synthetic shares to short shit into oblivion. But I’m just stepping back and thinking of the broader narrative and tactics on this. Spit-balling here again—bear with me. Now, if you were massively short a security while paying out your ass in borrowing fees for the privilege of entering the most crowded short trade in the market and you’re now opposite a massive business turnaround story, Ryan Cohen, numerous institutions, funds, retail whales, Norwegian HNW Freemason Consortiums, and the energy behind the Finest Rocket Children Ever to Grace Planet Fucking Earth—and you’re taking it in the ass week after week here—Do you then play this straight? Do you set aside all of these illegal and deceptive short tactics Jim Cramer candidly outlines in that video even though they’re impossible to enforce and are in fact not enforced? That Jim basically says you’d be professionally negligent if you were short and didn’t do this shit because fuck it whosgonnastopyou? And now you fucked up and that steamroller is barreling down upon you and there are all these things you could theoretically do try to get yourself out of this jam if you were That Kind of Person? Do you set this all aside and, at least in Jim’s view, tie one hand behind your precious ethical back? On the most heavily shorted stock off all time where you are bleeding Real Life Big-Boy Money? Just buying and selling you know, just a job, honest living, nothing much to it, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, can't get too carried away with it.
Or is it something a little bit fucking different than that?
I don’t know. I’m not in the industry myself. And I would never accuse anyone of doing anything so clearly contrary to the values upon which their professional career as Master of the Universe was built. So Gabe: chill. Don’t follow me or something on twitter man, since for all I know that’s Plotkinese for I Hope You Don’t Mind Sleeping With This Severed Horse Head in Your Bed Motherfucker. It’s just money, dude. You seem pretty well taken care of. But man would I be sweating if I were short right now staring down the barrel of your new neighbor Ryan Cohen’s whims and patience and polite Canadian manners and ambiguous emojis that we all lose our shit for. I mean, fuck man: are you ok? Don’t forget to exercise and eat well during all this. Maybe switch to green tea or something. And remember: you’ll always—always—be Michael Jordan’s Gary.
But here is where we return to our good friend Andrew Left from Citron Research.
Do you remember the excitement you felt this past weekend? I’ve never seen WSB so jacked. People were coming out hot on Tuesday—an uptick day! The new phone book’s here! The new phone book's here! What luck to be free of Gary’s tomfoolery for one fine day. And then GME spiked right away—reaching a high of over $45 that morning.
But then something happened. We all know what it was. But here is where any SEC lookie-loos need to close those Pornhub links and pay closer attention. Because in the moments before the Citron tweet that morning about Andy’s upcoming BuzzFeed Listicle call on Why GME is Scary Investment GRRRR, total short shares available dropped from 1.2M to 0. And a $300K put bet was placed on a weekly with a strike price well over 10% out of the money at the very moment that GME’s price was accelerating rapidly. (H/t u/FatAspirations). That’s some WSB-level shit right there.
And yet they pull it off! GME immediately shoots down nearly 30% intraday, and eventually climbing abck up above 10%, making us all feel a little weird and like ungrateful millennial brats for feeling so shitty about a 10% day. But we all know what fucking happened, now don’t we?
So what can we say about ol’ Andy? Now, many of you know Andy as the dumbshit who shorted TSLA until he was ground into little bits of dumb dumb dust and made to look ever so foolish over and over again until he finally cried drunk uncle and flipped to being long TSLA and now he’s cool to you or whatever. Or you might know him as the guy who puts out really shoddy research that often, by pure happenstance, drives a new narrative to control the orderflow and SP on a WSB-beloved security like PLTR? You know the guy I’m talking about. Once in hot pursuit by Hong Kong fuzz, an International Man of Obviousness with a face that says: why yes, I will have another vodka tonic thankyouverymuch. That’s him.
Well, just like future call-back candidate for the role of Frightened Inmate #2, Mr. Steve Cohen, Andy is also but a Caveman—frightened and confused by your modern concepts of “ethics” and “rules.” No! No!—He’s a straight shooter! Devoted to rooting out obvious frauds, like Lukin Coffee and TSLA (Do not fuck with Elon or my Hot Mom’s ETF, Andy). And like the aspirations of Antoine Bugle Boy when he entered the blue jeans market, Andy saw an overcrowded short trade here based on an overly simplistic and obsolete short thesis about GME and said: “Me Too!” And as this thing is ripping to the stratosphere, Andy starts ringing his dumb dumb twitter bell and saying hear ye, hear ye—Inauguration Day and time it shall be for all my Big Brain thoughts about GME!
Nothing weird about that. No sir.
So Andy Citron or whatever the fuck his name is will be putting out some dumbshit video or something today in what seems to be a pretty clear attempt to scare my poor Rocket Children and get those pesky computers to high frequency this shit to drive the SP down to more acceptable loss levels (cause let’s be honest: they’re still taking a fucking bath here) for Mel Tormé’s namesake hedgefund and all the other cretins that are dug into short position here. And they’re gonna try to scare ya’ with the color red! And they know that no one here likes the color red.
But do see what’s going on here and who we’re dealing with. This really ain’t rocket science, Rocket Children. The dude actually tried to claim he forgot about the Inauguration. In 2021. He has not been in a coma, to the best of my knowledge. But you do look a little bleary eyed, Andy. Must have been all that staying up super late working on those last few bullet points to fill out the powerpoint on that GME listicle of yours, eh sport?
Conclusion: On the Subject of Patience and The Arc of The Universe Bending Toward Ryan Fucking Cohen
In my youth there was a period of time where I went out on boats that would drop crates into the waters of the Arctic. Bundled inside them were raw pieces of meat. In the coming days the boats would head back out to the frigid seas, hook the floats bobbing upon the waters, and pull the crates up. Packed inside would be many crabs. They were so delicious & made a good price at market. The difference between the crate that was empty and the create full of bounty was a mystery even the great physicist Erwin Schrödinger pondered at much length.
But the hearty fishermen of my youth already knew the answer long ago. Why did the trap fill up? Time. In time, all traps fill. In time, all things pondered shall be revealed.
--The Fucking Viking, That’s Who
Now look, you all know I have a soft spot for Ryan Cohen. Hell, we all do. He’s a good dude. And the man has played this flawlessly so far. He really has. The fact that we are all sitting here with Ryan Cohen having successfully negotiated three seats on the Board—a bloodless coup as my man Rod Alzmann says—here in January? It’s amazing. His vision for GME is dialed-the-fuck in and extremely exciting. This misunderstood business is on the threshold of an exciting turnaround with Ryan Cohen at the helm. And though I was very much looking forward to the potential repercussions of a vote being called at the annual meeting and what that might mean for the short-term share price, this result is infinitely better. Whatever their motivations, that Board and George Sherman saw the writing on the wall here and accepted the Golden Bridge that Ryan offered them. And Ryan Cohen has done everything he’s set out to do here. And he’s clearly been having fun while doing it. Read up on the guy at some point if you haven’t–there’s lots of good DD out there on him, obviously. And while you’re reading and thinking about Ryan Cohen, think also about guys like Steve Cohen (no fucking relation) and Gabe Plotkin and Andy Left and how lucky we are that we get to roll with RC against that motley crew of fuckwads.
And do you know what? I’m guessing that RC, and maybe even the funds being discussed in that screenshot, have been very patient with Mr. Plotkin et al in recent weeks. You don’t go around bankrupting hedge funds willy nilly, you know--bad form and all that old chap. People tend to remember that. And guys like Steve Cohen and Gabe Plotkin seem like they play for keeps. So now you try to build them a Golden Bridge to cross—maybe not their preferred route of travel, but could be worse and all that, right guys? But for whatever reason it seems like the natural instinct here on the short side is fight over flight. And these short FUD tactics are getting increasingly ridiculous to help slow down the inevitable march toward the detonator right next to that bridge. So relax everyone! And let’s not fool ourselves: All those Masters of the Universes are well aware of the math problem they’re all facing here and they must have a vague grasp of the odds that this goes off in one direction over the other. And what that could mean for the size of their money pits and how many sports teams they can buy this year. Shit, I assume Steve Cohen is counseling his young acolyte about how many sads he himself felt deep down in his man heart on that fateful day in 2008 when he lost $250M on a short when Volkswagon squeezed to infinity—a sadness that he will continue to draw on when his agent finally finds him a role that calls for it.
But my point is: the longs here can afford to be patient and let this play out. When this thing moves, the Viking’s Schrödinger crabs will only be in one pot. And I’m guessing that pot is the one being held by the guy who is actually in total control here: Ryan Goddamn Cohen.
So enjoy the show today. If you’re anything like me, you’re feeling relaxed after gorging yourself on lucky space peanuts all week.(https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/10022/lucky-peanuts/)
And though these silly wabbits with their cumbersome FUD efforts can get a bit tiresome, I’m still very much enjoying this GME show at this point and almost do not want it to end—what with all these Sorkin-esque twists and turns and my Cohen Tweet Decorder Ring getting all this sweet action.
But just remember who Ryan Cohen is, what he cares about, and what, so far, he has told us he intends to do here. And then you might realize, as I have, that Ryan Cohen has had the Gray’s Sports Almanac here all along. This story has already been written. He’s already won. And Melvin Capital’s Schrödinger-ass crabs are dead as fuck. The only question now is: what causes that Golden Bridge to blow? I, for one, am content to wait on RC while counting my good fortune that I can continue to accumulate until whatever happens here happens. So pass the rocket peanuts.
It’s just money after all. Right Gabe?
TL/DR: Psst: a Mysterious Viking once told me about behind-the-scenes Golden Bridge negotiations that are likely taking place that give shorts no chance but the shorts seem to think they’re saying there’s a chance but there really is no chance; Gabe Plotkin, Steve Cohen and Andy Left are misunderstood Straight Shooters who probably answer typical interview questions about their own perceived weaknesses by saying “Sometimes I just care too much about doing the right thing”; and Ryan Cohen is the Goddamn Man so we can all relax and not worry so much about all this dumb short FUD bullshit, ok? OK. 🚀🚀🚀
**If you construe any of the above as investment advice without doing your own DD or at least Googling Ryan Cohen then you are a fucking idiot and may God have mercy on your soul. You too, Andy.
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